Wednesday, November 14, 2007


Todays action

The last hour or so wasn't very kind to the bulls. Make sure you have a list of stocks to short or buy puts on close at hand... you could be using it very soon.


ok it's time for me to do something about this. i've been hangin around with this market and not doing anything but i gotta face the music now.

is it safe to buy bonds now? how does the dollar and possible interest changes affect bonds? i'm thinking about BND 'cause i like ETF's.

i will probably go back to my ETF portfolio and use options to add when appropriate. i already have VTI, VWO, & GLD. i think i will add BND and not change that except to add option plays here and there.

speaking of options...check this out. i was long BA calls a while back trying to play the bounce off the 200MA. that didn't work but tell me that this doesn't look like a great short play!? specially if it rises back up to the neck line. we got a double top, H & S, and it's falling from the 200MA. what do you think?

how 'bout a long play? after all, the market will rally 'a bit' this week. i like MO, a breakout of over, say 73.55?:

Hi j.M,
I don't know too much about bonds, so can't advise you on that, but bond prices move inversely to interest rates. So if you think interest rates will be cut again, you get get into some bonds. Else if you feel the rates would remain stead or go up, some online high interest savings account could do the trick for now.

BA could be a good short play if it can make it up to the 92-94 area on not-so-hot volume.

MO does look like a good long play, as you mentioned above the 73.55ish area. A green stock on a day like today .. nice!

Thanks for sharing these .. I'm currently keeping an eye on the market 'leaders' like AAPL, RIMM, MA etc. If the market does rally, these stocks should do well.

well it all comes down to this. if we close below augusts lows at all i think we're in trouble. i'm in BND & cash right now and actually started making some money back last week on FAF puts and SOHU calls. quick 1 to 2 day trades. once again i think we rally for a few weeks at least but my money is NOT where my mouth is. i'll get long after we start to rally or continue to look for puts.

how you holdin up?

WOW, i haven't ran my IBD watch list in a few weeks but i just did and noticed:

- it's the shortest it's ever been
- tons of new names

basically to make the list the stock has to be:
- within 10% of it's high
- optionable
- EPS = 80+
- RelStr = 90+
- Group Str = A (or higher)

the list takes me a while but it's been real good at finding future momentum stocks real early. here's a few examples of stocks i found and when:
BIDU 12/02/06 @ 111.00
CROX 12/2/06 @ 41.74 (pre-split price)
BCSI 03/31/07 @ 36.73 (pre-split)
NILE 04/29/07 @ 46.71
DRYS 05/13/07 NA

the method i use for stocks on this list is to buy options when oversold then hold for a couple months, though i never really end up holding for a couple months.

i'll reply later with some new names that made the list.

I FEEL LIKE A NEW MAN! i think i may have found a method for shorts. i previously didn't know what stocks to look at to find candidates but i think i might be on to something. here's my short (PUT) watch list for the week:
CF (H&S)
MLM (@Res.)
TXI (@Res.)

and longs:
IVGN (b/0 92ish)
AIRM (@support)
IRM (@support)
SOHU (@support)
CVD (b/o 83.4ish)

lets see what this week brings
What tool are you using to run this scan? Something that IBD offers?
You've mentioned some stocks that are showing H&S patterns or are at support or resistance, does this tool mention that, or did you take a look at the charts and figure that out?
The past few days I covered a few short positions, I'm mostly long again, will look to add a few shorts if the market runs into resistance.
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