Saturday, January 26, 2008


A few charts for next week

It's still a pretty tricky environment to trade. When things look like the market will go up, it goes down and vice versa. Most of the charts that I'm seeing look like they're running into resistance, which were prior support areas. Here are a few charts that I felt could be worth looking into...

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Monday, January 21, 2008


Doom and Gloom

Tomorrow's going to be a fun day ...NOT. I'm really not sure what the game plan should be for tomorrow. It won't be wise to buy puts early in the morning, since the premiums would be through the roof, and buying calls would be akin to catching sharp falling knives.

Trade well, be safe.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008


The straw that broke the camel's back...

Dow was trying to get some sort of support around the 12500 area. But INTC screwed things up pretty badly after hours. Not good.
A lot of stocks have broken support once again and the news just keeps getting worse. JPM reports tomorrow morning, not expecting anything great from them either. Dow, 12000 or bust?

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Saturday, January 12, 2008


Random Charts

Here are a few charts of stocks I usually follow. Some of them are running into resistance and some of them close to support. Most of the charts are bearish, if not all of them. The market just can't seem to get a foothold. Whenever there's a hint of a rally, a company usually speaks up after hours with some 'wonderful' credit crisis news, and the market goes back in the crapper the next day.

I haven't taken a look at the IBD 100 list, no sense wasting too much time on it this week.

Here are the charts. Comments welcome. Please share ideas for other interesting charts.

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Wednesday, January 09, 2008


Sell - 2 RIMM Feb 105 Puts @ 13.15avg (Bought @ 10.50avg)

One more thing I need to remember is to get rid of options early on in the trading day. Option premiums are usually high at that time. I got stopped out of this position mid-morning. Saw this option going all the way to 16.50 (Damn). It did close below my selling point, so can't complain a whole lot.

Short term bottom in the market perhaps?

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Tuesday, January 08, 2008


Buy - 1 RIMM Feb 105 Put @ 10.00

Added one more to my current position. Avg price 2 @ 10.50.


Monday, January 07, 2008


Buy - 1 RIMM Feb 105 Put @ 11.00

Bought this on a break of 100 mid-afternoon. Although it fell down soon after, the late day rally brought it back up to the same level as when I purchased it.


Saturday, January 05, 2008


Happy New Year...

Nice way for the market to wish us a Happy New Year huh? Not sure if a lot of people saw this coming (maybe this guy with this time machine did). We'll have to wait and see what happens next.

So it's that time of the year, when people make resolutions, look back at how the last year went. Just wanted to post a few thoughts myself.

2007 was a flat year for me. I think I finished nearly at the same point as I started. Not good... It was a good learning experience though, and hopefully the lessons learnt will enable me to make some money in the future.

I started this blog, posted my trades, posted some lessons learnt in the hope that I won't repeat my mistakes again. I have tried hard to stick to them, but sometimes the gambler in me prevents me from doing so. Going forward I'll try to do a better job of this.

A few things I plan to practice/pay attention to this year-

1. Respect Stop Loss
How many times have we taken profits quickly, but let our losers bleed us dry? I'm sure many many times. When a trade goes against us, we try to wait it out, thinking it will go our way again. Most of the time it just keeps on going the other way. That's when a small loss starts becoming bigger and if you're holding options you tend to say, 'Well since the position is already down so much, I'll wait it out some more.'. That's when your option will expire worthless.
This year I've let way fewer options expire worthless than the previous years. I'll try to bring that number down to 0.

2. Be Patient
Sometimes, when traders look at charts and spot a pattern, they'll get
into the trade before the pattern has a chance to finish itself. This could be disastrous. Wait for the pattern to finish, then decide which side of the trade to take. BIDU for example, a few months ago, it looked like it was forming somewhat of a head and shoulders pattern, and on a break of around the 300 area, it would fall straight through. I'm sure many people shorted the stock in anticipation. But it bounced right off of that level and went back over 400.
One should identify a good support and resistance area, and wait for the stock to
reach that before making a decision. These areas are like magnets, stocks will generally test them before making their moves.
It is very possible that inspite of waiting for the stock to do it's things around
these areas, you would still take the wrong side of the trade. In that case, follow point number 1 that I made above.

3. Learn what make options tick
Although I've been trading options for some time now, I don't think I've ever sat back and thought what makes them tick, what are the undercurrents that people usually don't see from the top.
A few days ago when I bought a put on GS when it was trading at 215, it went down to 210 and after about 4 days it came back up to 215. In the meantime, my option lost about 80 dollars, even though it was at the same spot as when I bought i. Although I knew options will lose money as time passes, I didn't look to see how much it would be losing. I then looked at theta, which tells you how much value the option loses with the passage of time. It was over 20 dollars. So I was losing 20 dollars each day just by holding on to it. So after that day, I'm taking a look at the theta as well before making my decision (I've always looked at the IV and delta before).
This year, I'll also try to look at trading spreads etc to possibly lower my risk. Also, I'll be looking into being an options seller more than a buyer. If 70% of the options expire worthless, it's better being on the side of the trade that has a higher probability of success. As an options seller, time is your friend.

I guess that's it for now, I'm sure there are many more things that I would like to do which I haven't mentioned, but these are the more important ones.

I would like to thank all those who visit my blog and those who post comments. That's what keeps me going. Going forward, I would really appreciate it if more of you could post your comments. I might not know the answers to your questions, but by doing so all of us could learn together.

Thursday, January 03, 2008



While retail in general looks weak, JCP looks like it's ready to break down.


Wednesday, January 02, 2008


Sell - 1 GS Jan 210 Put @ 7.50 (Bought @ 5.50)

Sold this when the market looked like it was reversing in the afternoon. But it went down after that. Oh well...

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Sell - 1 AAPL Jan 195 Put @ 5.80 (Bought @ 6.30)

I closed this a few days ago when AAPL went above 200. Didn't want to risk it. But after looking at the action the past few days.. bad decision.

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